Devaluations and Emerging Stock Market Returns

Stock returns over the two years surrounding 24 currency devaluations are examined. Using bootstrapped distributions, returns preceding the devaluation are shown to be significantly below normal, in both dollar and local currency terms. Most of the downturn, however, occurs well before the month of the devaluation. Returns following a devaluation are more normal. While industry and company specific effects appear to influence return behavior, only country effects and leverage levels are statistically significant. At the country level, both aggregate economic activity (GDP) and the size of the devaluation are important in explaining return behavior. The stock of foreign debt has little impact on returns. Finally, even though returns appear to anticipate devaluations, they are not statistically significant at predicting the size of the devaluation.